By Tariro Daphne Senderayi
Some political analysts,including Alex Magaisa have concluded that as long as the deeply divided Zanu pf continues to widen the chasm amongst its own, the party is likely to face a loss in the 2018 general election.
Since time immemorial the ruling party has been embroiled in deadly succession and factional wars with the Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s (Lacoste faction)supporters going against the party’s young turks adversely known as the Generation 40 faction(G40 faction).
Analysts have drawn direct parallels from what transpired in 2008 with the ruling party where MDC is said to have won but had the election stolen from them by Zanu PF. In that season there was already a problematic clique of disillusioned Zanu PF members who encouraged the electorate to vote for MDC instead of President Mugabe.
“It is fair to predict that that there will be another bhora musango one way or the other come 2018…” says UK based political analyst Alex Magaisa. He insists that at the rate of which these factions hold each other with utter distaste, there is no way one will support the other in their quest for power. Apparently in the past, they have been able to firefight and reach a consensus or unite for the bigger goal but this time the bad blood between them has become so poisonous that bridging that gap is going to be near impossible.
Another human rights activist and political analyst, Dewa Mavhinga is also of the same school of thought, that if Zanu PF does not put its house in order, it could cost them the coming election. His argument was that with our frail President turning 94 this month when elections are going to be next year, it is normal that some of his colleagues will do the right and reasonable thing and call for him to step down and make way for an orderly succession process. However, if His Excellency does not heed the call, the factions will not go away and this leaves a window of opportunity for opposition parties to bag a victory.
This is in light of the vote of no confidence by the disgruntled war veterans who have said under no uncertain terms will they campaign for His Excellency in the much anticipated 2018 election. It is a public knowledge that over the years the war veterans have provided the ruling party with a concrete support system particularly playing a significant role in ensuring that the President remains on the golden throne. Therefore, in 2018 without this support system the ruling party appears weakened especially as the war veterans have declared their crystal intention to vote for an opposition candidate if the President stands in those elections.
If the factional wars are not resolved as soon as possible, Zanu PF will remain divided come 2018. A precedent was set in 2008 and this can happen again. Also on the other hand if the opposition fails to unite there are chances that there shall be a continuation of the status quo or there will be a damaging case of voter apathy.